World War 3, Ukraine’s formidable defense against Russia’s military forces raises concerns about the ongoing conflict escalating into a global war. With Russia’s ground attacks continuing into their second month, the situation demands critical attention, says Mai’a Cross, a renowned Political Science and International Affairs professor at Northeastern.
“The forthcoming weeks will be critical in defining whether the fight extends beyond Ukraine,” Cross-mentions. Russia’s escalated airstrikes and missile attacks risk accidentally spilling into NATO territory. This situation would put NATO in a challenging position regarding an appropriate response.
Should Russian strikes unintentionally or intentionally penetrate NATO territory, Article 5 of the Western treaty would be invoked, necessitating a military response from the U.S., warns Cross. This situation could lead to a large-scale conflict involving the world’s superpowers, reminiscent of a world war.
World War 3, Cross-suggests that U.S. and NATO involvement could primarily include conventional warfare – deploying tanks, artillery, military helicopters, and fighter jets to challenge Russia’s forces. However, the involvement of non-participating superpowers, such as China, remains ambiguous. Despite criticizing US’s role in the conflict, the Chinese Communist Party has also attempted to distance itself from Russia and acted as a mediator, aiming for a peaceful resolution.
Amidst Russia’s struggles in Ukraine, recent U.S. intelligence reports indicate that Putin is resolved to triumph, despite an increasing civilian death toll. Russian airstrikes have been targeting civilian locations, such as a maternity hospital and a theater in Mariupol, along with a shopping mall in Kyiv, indicating a shift in their strategy.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeal for a no-fly zone in Ukraine has been dismissed by President Joe Biden and other Western officials due to the risk of igniting a direct conflict between the West and Russia.
Discussing the possibility of nuclear weapons being involved if a third world war were to occur, Stephen Flynn, founding director of the Global Resilience Institute at Northeastern, warns, “We’re still in the atomic age. Both Russia and the United States have sufficient nuclear weapons to annihilate the world multiple times.”
World War 3, Could Global Conflict be Imminent?
The escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Gaza, could potentially spur a much wider war, cautions Miri Eisin, a former military intelligence officer and current counter-terrorism expert at Reichman University in Israel. This escalation comes at a time when other global tensions are on the rise, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and deteriorating US-China relations. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has issued a stark warning that the world might be drifting towards one of the most dangerous periods in human history, marked by an increase in the number of operational nuclear warheads.
Iran
The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been a vocal critic of Iran’s nuclear program for the past 30 years. With Hamas’s recent attacks, there’s a suspicion that Iran may have played a part, and Netanyahu might now feel justified in acting upon his longstanding threats, as reported by Al Jazeera. Sky News’s Mark Stone suggests that Hamas’s attack isn’t just inspired by Iran, but potentially funded and equipped by them. This could lead to a broadening of the conflict to include Iran, raising global concerns.
Brandon Weichert, a geopolitical analyst, told the Express that the possibility of a new world war could emerge from the Middle East, driven by an Iran reinforced by its allies Beijing and Moscow. Additionally, the breakdown of the 2015 nuclear deal and Iran’s aggressive expansion of its nuclear program have been causing alarm, with fears of a potential regional war escalating.
Russia
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which started in February 2022, has sparked significant concern, with Politico describing it as the most dangerous event Europe has faced since World War II. There are fears that Putin might expand the conflict following losses in Ukraine. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has warned that further military aid to Kyiv from NATO could inch the world closer to a third World War.
China
The increasingly intense rivalry between the US and China has been seen as the chief threat to global stability. The expansion and advancement of China’s military have been a cause for concern in the US, especially as the US’s own military resources dwindle. Relations between the two nations have soured following controversial events such as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and China’s intrusion into US airspace with an enormous balloon. The future of Taiwan, a disputed island that China claims sovereignty over, could potentially lead to a regional conflict involving the US. Despite recent attempts to defuse the tension, trust between the two nations remains fragile.
Focus on North Korea
As noted by The Washington Post, the security situation in Northeast Asia is becoming more troubled, with China’s expanding military prowess and the aftermath of Russia’s attack on Ukraine contributing to the issue. North Korea’s ties with Russia have strengthened, while Japan’s relationship with Russia has worsened.
In a noteworthy instance, North Korea apprehended Travis King, a young US military personnel, who crossed the South Korean border unauthorized in July. This incident occurred during a particularly strained period with North Korea, as BBC News reported.
Furthermore, for the first time in many years, the US posted a submarine equipped with nuclear-capable ballistic missiles to South Korea. The action led to a stern warning from North Korea’s Defense Minister, stating that this could be a valid reason for using nuclear weaponry.
The AI Factor
The rapid advancement in artificial intelligence has raised concerns about AI unintentionally triggering a worldwide clash. A respected academic from the University of Cambridge warned in an interview with the i news site that without human intervention to analyze alerts from an AI-aided early warning system, the technology might potentially misinterpret a bird as an impending threat and ignite a nuclear launch.
While no country is publicly seeking to automate their nuclear arsenal, the idea of merging AI with command systems looks promising and seems inevitable, as pointed out by Peter Rautenbach of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
